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The cost of Labour's four-party coalition

What would be the cost of a Labour coalition with the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity?

The answer is tens of billions in additional spending, paid for by new taxes and higher debt that would make every New Zealander poorer.

Labour itself has $18 billion in spending it has not explained and National has estimated that the combined cost of policies announced by the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would be $232.6 billion on top of that.

Nobody is suggesting all their policies will survive coalition negotiations. But with polls suggesting Labour’s three coalition partners together make up around half of the left bloc, it is reasonable – if not conservative – to suggest 20 per cent of their spending promises would make it though.

If just 20 per cent of these promises survived negotiations, the cost would be nearly $46.5 billion over four years. That money has to come from somewhere.

If it is borrowed, net core Crown debt would climb to around $280 billion, and taxpayers would face around $2 billion more in annual interest costs by 2031. This debt-fuelled spending would mean higher inflation and higher interest rates.

With no obvious path back to surplus, New Zealand’s financial stability would suffer and our reputation as a reliable destination for investment would also falter.

The choice couldn’t be clearer. Stick with National’s plan for a more secure future, or risk it all on a Labour-led four-party coalition

Important message on vote splitting

At my pub politics and when out door knocking, I am being asked questions by people who are confused about how the voting system works and how they should deploy their votes this election.

I’ll try and keep this simple.

In our MMP system you get two votes. The “party vote” is for the party you like the most. This vote determines how many seats a party gets in Parliament. The more votes, the more seats. It’s proportional. If you get 40% of the party votes cast you get 40% of the seats in Parliament.

You also get a “candidate vote”. This is for the candidate you like the most in the electorate you live in. This vote determines who your local MP will be. If you live in Selwyn, that is me.

If you want National to lead the next government then party vote National.

If you want me to keep being your local MP, give me your candidate vote.

There are people out there who claim to be supporting National who say “to re-elect the government you should only vote for National candidates and give your party vote to someone else”.

Just think about that logic – to help National you shouldn’t vote for them. Doesn’t make much sense does it?

The more party votes National gets, the more MPs it gets. That means more great National candidates make it into Parliament ready to implement our agenda.

It also means keeping experienced National Ministers in key roles, including Nicola Willis as Finance Minister, Chris Bishop to implement the new Planning and Environment Bills, and Paul Goldsmith as Justice Minister. If you like the direction our Government has taken in these areas, National needs your vote so we can continue delivering our plan for New Zealand.

So keep it simple. If you support National, then two ticks blue - today!