Well, somehow we’re now less than 40 days out from the election!
Parliament has wrapped up its final sitting week of the term, National officially launched its campaign over the weekend, and there’s been plenty happening here in Maungakiekie too. Yesterday, we also got an important update on something that affects every household and business in New Zealand - the state of the Government’s books.
Three years of hard work beginning to pay off
When National came into office three years ago, New Zealand was in recession, inflation had peaked at 7.3% and the Government was running a significant structural deficit.
Since then, it certainly hasn’t all been smooth sailing. We’ve had to deal with the aftermath of the enormous spending during COVID, global trade uncertainty and, more recently, the conflict in Iran. Getting the books back in shape was never going to happen overnight, but we’ve stuck to the job.
Across three Budgets, the Government has found substantial savings and reprioritised spending from the back office to frontline services. At the same time, we’ve delivered tax relief, introduced Investment Boost for businesses, and continued investing in the much needed infrastructure like schools, hospitals, roads and rail.
Yesterday's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update shows the progress being made.
There are five numbers I reckon are worth knowing:
- The deficit is forecast to fall faster than expected — from the $11.4 billion forecast at the Budget to $6.8 billion this financial year, and to less than $1 billion next year.
- Surpluses are forecast to grow over the following three years, from around $4 billion to almost $12 billion.
- Debt is forecast to begin falling as a share of the economy in 2028/29, before falling in dollar terms in 2030/31, which would be the first annual fall since 2017/18.
- The Government is now forecast to borrow $15 billion less over the next four years through reduced bond issuance, on top of the $6 billion reduction forecast at the Budget. Less borrowing also means lower borrowing costs.
- The economy is forecast to grow by an average of 2.6%, with 220,000 more jobs, and wages forecast to rise faster than prices.
There’s still plenty of work to do, and if the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that global conditions can change pretty quickly.
So, an improving set of books isn’t an excuse to open the chequebook again. For me, it’s a sign that the hard work and some pretty tough decisions are beginning to show up in the numbers, and a reminder of why staying disciplined with your money matters.
The campaign is officially underway
There was certainly no missing the sea of blue at the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) over the weekend!
National’s campaign launch brought together over 1,000 supporters from across the country, alongside a few familiar faces including Dame Jenny Shipley, Sir John Key and Sir Bill English. There was a real buzz in the room and it definitely felt like the campaign had begun.
It was also pretty fitting to be holding it at the NZICC. Backed by the National-led Government and completely funded by the private sector, the NZICC sits right next door to another major Auckland project that has finally come to life...the CRL!
Aucklanders certainly haven’t wasted any time using it, either. In the first seven days of CRL service, Auckland’s rail network recorded 528,007 train boardings, its busiest week ever, beating the previous seven-day record from 2019 by more than 23,000.
Back to the launch, Christopher Luxon gave his personal commitment to New Zealanders on what National will deliver if re-elected on 7 November:
- Economic growth that delivers new jobs and higher wages
- No new taxes so you keep more of what you earn
- Compulsory KiwiSaver with higher contributions and a $1500 Baby Boost
- Paid Parental Leave extension from 26 to 30 weeks
- Better school results by replacing NCEA, regular assessment and teaching the basics brilliantly
- Tougher consequences for criminals and more Police patrols
- Faster healthcare and more medicines on top of 33 new cancer medicines already delivered
- Better infrastructure with Roads of National Significance, new classrooms and new and upgraded hospitals
- A better deal at the supermarket by driving competition
- Books in surplus so we don’t saddle our kids with new debt or more taxes.
One last sprint in Parliament
Parliament is a pretty crazy place at the best of times, and the final sitting week of a term takes things to another level. But behind the late nights and lively debates is some pretty important work. Before the House rose, we got a few final pieces of legislation across the line:
- Replacing the RMA with the new Planning Bill and Natural Environment Bill, designed to cut red tape, make it easier to build homes and infrastructure, and allow farmers and growers to do what they do best.
- Three-day hospital stays for new mums and babies, backed by $34.4 million in Budget 26 over four years for more maternity beds and support for the maternity workforce.
And amongst all of that, my favourite moment of the week actually came from the public gallery...
A 50th birthday to remember
Mark Grantham visited the Beehive for the first time to celebrate his 50th birthday, and while he was watching from the gallery, I had the chance to acknowledge him during my speech.
Mark has raised tens of thousands of dollars for World Vision through his chocolate sales in Newmarket, where he first met Minister Cameron Brewer through the local business association.
So, happy 50th Mark! Not a bad way to celebrate...and now permanently recorded in Hansard.
Around Maungakiekie
With Parliament now risen, you’ll be seeing even more of me around Maungakiekie!
I’ve loved our Street Corner Chats in Ellerslie, Mt Wellington, Onehunga, Greenlane and One Tree Hill. Panmure, Epsom South and Royal Oak are still to come, and hopefully I’ll catch you at one!
As always, thanks for taking the time to read my update. It’s going to be a busy few weeks...if you see me, come and say hello. I always enjoy a chat.
Stanhope Road School Fundraiser
We had a great quiz night at the Stanhope Road School fundraiser with team Fleming Hot Right Now! Our eyes were on first place right until the final round, when Bridgerton brought us undone. Thanks to everyone who helped put on a great event.
Sylvia Park School Assembly
A few weeks ago, I joined Sylvia Park School for their Te Wiki o te Reo Māori assembly. A special celebration of te reo Māori and the students, teachers and whānau helping keep the language strong in their school community. Thanks for having me along!
Sommerville School Book Character Parade
We recently had a great morning with the Sommerville Special School community for their Book Character Parade. There was so much effort behind the costumes, and even more work behind the scenes to help students take part and enjoy the day. Thanks to Principal Belinda Johnston and Deputy Principal Devs Charles for having us!
Father's Day
This month, we celebrated Father's Day. I'm incredibly blessed to be the son of Rod Fleming. We've had decades of fun together, and his example of a faithful life, investing in others, continues to be the most inspiring vision.
New School Classrooms for One Tree Hill College
It was a big day for One Tree Hill College, opening their brand new classrooms alongside Education Minister Erica Stanford. Even better, the project was delivered on budget and 7 weeks ahead of schedule!
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