Let the race begin

Leader Dr Don Brash, Members of Parliament, Board of Directors, delegates and distinguished guests. 

This is a very important conference.  National is in good shape.  Historically, big swings happen in New Zealand politics around every fifteen years.  They have been dramatic - look at 1975 and 1990.  With a lot of hard work we can make 2005 follow that trend.  The public mood has definitely changed.  Led by our Leader, Dr Don Brash, the big swing is coming around again.

We must work to capitalise on the sea-change we are experiencing.  The foundations are in place, they are strong, we are nearly ready.  We have confidence that the re-building is nearly complete.  However, we must not be complacent.  There is still a lot of hard work to be done.

Given that the conference is being held here at Ellerslie, you will forgive me if I have at least one racing analogy.  We, the National Party, are staking all we have - talent, time and resources - on a most important double.  The treasury bench stakes is run only every three years.  There will be only one winner.  A place is not good enough.  The rider is Brash, with number one on his back.  The colours are blue.  We do not want a photo finish.  We need to win by a good length.  Let me explain the two legs of the double; although, if you have been to the regional conferences, you will probably know them already.

The first leg of the double is for National to win electorate seats.  At each regional conference I have mentioned seats that I would like to see back in National’s stable.  These seats are in the ‘must win‘ and ‘can win‘ categories.  Let me tell you about some of the ‘must win‘ seats:

· Everyone is telling me that Invercargill is ripe for the taking.  So it should be.  It was a National seat from 1946 to 1993, apart from a three-year blip between 1972 and 1975.  Members keep phoning me to tell me about the significant ‘taxi driver’ test.  The taxi drivers in Invercargill are saying we will win the seat largely because of the decision to close down Southland schools.

· Otago is in exactly the same category.  Apart from 1972 to 1975, it has always been a National seat.  Nominations will soon open in that seat and we are going to win it back - and win it back handsomely.

· It’s time for Wellington Central, the most political seat of all, to return to National.  Many of you will remember the great days when National’s Dan Riddiford held the seat, from 1960 until he retired in 1972.  There is now a great deal of interest being expressed by prospective candidates, so I know it will be an exciting seat to watch in 2005.

· Wairarapa - a seat that has lacked National  Parliamentary representation for two terms.  The Wairarapa electorate, which comprises areas once represented by the great Keith Holyoake, John Falloon and Wyatt Creech, is growing strongly again and will come back next year.

· Whanganui is a seat where victory must be ours.  Our candidate halved Labour’s majority in 2002 despite the dreadful election result, so I’m confident that a reasonable swing will return the seat to National.

· The two Hamilton seats are always hair-trigger marginals and that remains the case today,  and

· Up here in Auckland, Northcote should be ours on any swing.

Those are the ’must win‘ seats.  There are a number of electorates National can win, if we all work hard.  These include:

· Aoraki
· West Coast Tasman
· Banks Peninsula
· Tukituki
· East Coast

There is always a danger when mentioning specific seats that others are ignored as possibilities.  That is not the case.  I have mentioned only some of the possibilities.

There was an interesting reaction to my prediction, first made at the Canterbury/Westland Regional Conference, that West Coast Tasman could return to National.  Let’s not forget we have won the Party vote in that area, the electorate is changing its complexion (especially in the Tasman area where incomes are rising and people have every reason to vote for a Party of aspiration), and the Government has made decisions which have alienated good West Coast folk.  With the right candidate, and a good campaign, we can take the seat back AND win the Party vote - as we did in 1999.

Mentioning the Party vote leads me to the second leg of the double.  Winning seats is important.  Obviously!  That is why I have spent a few minutes on the topic.  But of paramount importance is winning the Party vote.  I have stressed this at every regional conference.

The Party vote will win or lose this election, so that must be our primary effort.  There is no point in winning seven - or eight - constituencies, only increasing our Party vote to 30%.  Why?  Because National would not get the chance to implement the policies New Zealand needs.  National is capable of winning maybe half the Party vote; as the polls have been telling us all year - so we must not compromise our ambitions.

Let us also remember some home truths:
· We need a good grass roots campaign throughout the country.  Every vote matters, be it in Mt Albert, Wigram or Hutt South.  Every Party vote won in a safe Labour seat is worth the same as a Party vote from a safe National seat.  No electorate can afford to neglect membership.  The greater the membership of the Party in an electorate, the more that electorate has control over the selection of its candidate.  Membership brings activity, profile and energy to an electorate.  It is fundamental.  National must be connected to the grassroots.  At the end of this speech the Leader and I will be awarding the Highest Membership Cup and the Most Improved Membership Cup. 

·  I want everyone to be clear, not only those of us in this room, but to all voters. I want to tell all voting New Zealanders if you want a National government led by Prime Minister Don Brash, who wants all New Zealanders to have equal opportunities, who wants a tougher approach to crime, then give National your Party vote.  Do not be taken in by misleading campaigns about vote splitting and how the electoral system works.  Our electoral system is MMP.  Under that system it is the Party vote that determines the make-up of Parliament.  On Election Day, after the polling booths close, the Party vote is counted and that will tell us the outcome of the election.  Splitting votes will give the wrong outcome - another unsatisfactory coalition government.  Give your Party vote to the Party of choice (National) - that is what is important.  We want our MPs to be in government, not in opposition.  It is the Party vote that is important, it is the Party vote that counts.

· Growing the Party vote also means concentrating on particular groups within the population where we need to do better.  Don and the team have already done great work to bring core voters back, such as mainstream families, farming communities, professionals and small business people.  These are all groups we singled out last year - they have returned to National.  We still need to do more:

o The women’s vote is critical, so we need to increase our share.  We need to explain to women that it is National that will invest in enforcing the law and reducing crime, which will keep them and their children safe;  it is National that will establish the conditions for rising incomes in New Zealand so our children and grandchildren choose to live and work here rather than overseas.

o The youth vote is paramount.  You know the old adage:  ‘if you are not a socialist when you are young, you have no heart.  And if you are not a conservative by the time you are 40, you have no brains’.  Well, New Zealand’s youth has plenty of brains and they’d like the choice of staying in their own country, not be forced abroad to earn enough to pay off their student loans.   They are looking forward to inspired, realistic and straightforward leadership.  That’s what they will get with Don Brash.

o The over-60s vote.  National betrayed them when it reneged on its clear promises made in the 1990 election.  Don Brash has made a clear commitment to these people that we will never again let them down.  The age of eligibility will not change under his leadership.  National’s recognition of the importance of the over-60s vote is highlighted by the establishment of a policy advisory group within the National Party, focusing on the over 60s.  National must improve our vote in this age group. 

What, then, are the keys to winning this double? 

First, leadership.  In his brief Parliamentary career, Don Brash has demonstrated that he’s exactly the leader New Zealand needs.  With such an impressive curriculum vitae, and after so many years of service to the country, Don Brash could be out in the commercial world making money for himself and his family, working as a highly paid consultant, or speaking as a visiting professor at universities all over the globe.  Instead, he decided to enter politics.   Don’s only interest is serving the public good and the country’s interest - and people recognise that.  New Zealanders know that Don Brash is not a career politician, and that he is interested in more than merely playing politics. 

Rather, he wants to do something about:
· The growing economic gap between Australia and New Zealand.
· Ensuring all New Zealanders have equal opportunity.
· Tackling New Zealand’s rising crime rate.
· Reducing welfare dependency, and
· Promoting standards in education.

Our leader is not a political robot with five-minute horizons, concerned only with maintenance of personal and political power. Don Brash is a generous and visionary man.  Don Brash is a deep thinker, and he’s on a mission to get New Zealand back on track, not throw it away in the interests of token political correctness. 

The second crucial element to ensuring National’s success at the next election is our candidate selection. 

I am delighted to advise you today that our first candidate has already been selected.  The Board has confirmed that number one on National’s List is Dr Donald Thomas Brash, Member of Parliament.

Candidate selections are now officially under way.  Our candidate college met yesterday.  We are preparing potential candidates by training them on everything from how to deal with the media, to the history of the Party, to the electoral processes.   There is more work to be done with the future of the college - I look forward to bedding it in as a permanent fixture of the National structure. 

The third element is policy.  The policy programme is coming together very well indeed.  I have already mentioned Don’s “big five” National’s key policy areas.  Treaty policy has now been finalised and approved by the Board, Don’s Law and Order speech was made last week, welfare is shortly to be approved, and large chunks of the education and economic policies are to be finalised.  And soon, the caucus and the Party will have completed most of the remaining areas. 

One of the signs of a healthy party is an active interest in policy.  The Policy Consultation Committee is being bombarded with ideas on a huge range of subjects.  Members are spending more time and effort on policy papers than they have in recent years.  It’s also refreshing to have members submitting their own papers into the policy development process.  Members of the Party continue to comment to me about the lively discussions they are having at electorate and regional level on all policy areas, from welfare to the primary sector and law and order. 

The final ingredient to winning the Party vote is loyalty.  It used to be said that loyalty was National’s secret weapon.  We must ensure that once again it is our secret weapon.  Let us not kid ourselves.  It hasn’t been our secret weapon for periods over the last decade.  The voters notice disunity and punish political parties that are not united.  That is why loyalty is paramount:

· Loyalty to the Leader and caucus, in public and in private.

· Loyalty to the Party staff.  We have a small and dedicated team from which we expect a lot.  We need to be mindful of what they do on our behalf as they seek to move the Party to a new level of professionalism.

· Loyalty to Party officials who give their time willingly and at great cost; and

· Loyalty to nominees for selection and candidates.

Leadership, sound policy, quality candidates, loyalty and unity. That is what the public expects from us.

And, at the 2005 General Election, that is what they will get from the united and re-energised New Zealand National Party. 

So roll on 2005, when, under the leadership of Don Brash, we will take the fight to our opposition - in the cities and towns, on the farms and the factories, in the student cafés, and on the foreshore.

We are ready.  The winning post is in sight.  As a united team together we will succeed.  Back National, back Brash!  Let the race begin.


Ends